Το Bitcoin σημειώνει μικρή πτώση, αλλά οι απώλειες περιορίζονται — Σχόλια από την αγορά

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0920 GMT - Bitcoin edges lower, reversing some of its recent gains. Cryptocurrencies have recovered in recent weeks as investors bought them back after hefty selling early in the year. The falls come as oil prices retreat after an export agreement involving Iraq's Kurdistan region. Cryptocurrencies have benefited from investors seeking alternative assets amid the uncertainty of the Middle East war and a jump in energy prices, analysts say. Falls are limited, however, and the outlook for crypto "remains constructive," Saxo analysts say in a note. Inflows into U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds are helping to stabilize prices during periods of volatility, they say. Bitcoin falls 0.5% to $74,150. (jessica.fleetham@wsj.com)

0919 GMT - The conflict in the Middle East means it looks increasingly likely the next European Central Bank interest-rate move will be a hike rather than a cut, Ebury's Matthew Ryan says in a note. While the ECB would traditionally look through a supply shock, its recent experience of the inflationary surge after Russia's invasion of Ukraine is likely to make it more wary of second-order effects, he says. Even prior to the war, data including a substantial upward surprise in negotiated wages had been pointing in that direction. At Thursday's meeting, ECB President Lagarde will likely say that the ECB won't allow a dangerous inflationary surge to take hold, Ryan says. Investors price in around 36 basis points of eurozone rate hikes by year-end, LSEG data shows. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)

0907 GMT - Rising unemployment rate in the U.K. and a slowdown in wage growth are likely to limit second-round effects of inflation despite risks from high energy costs, SEB Research's Gustav Helgesson says in a note. "This suggests that the Bank of England should look through the coming inflation increase," he says. The BOE is expected to delay cutting interest rates as the Middle East war has led to high energy prices and renewed concerns about inflation. Markets price in a 97% chance of the BOE keeping interest rates on hold at 3.75% during Thursday's rate decision. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0841 GMT - Yields on U.K. government bonds fall, along with their U.S. and eurozone equivalents, as market sentiment improves ahead of key central banks' interest-rate decisions on Wednesday and Thursday. The U.S. Federal Reserve rate decision is due at 1800 GMT while European Central Bank and Bank of England rate decisions are due on Thursday. Investors expect the three central banks to keep interest rates unchanged this week and wait to see how they react to the recent jump in energy prices due to the Middle East war. Ten-year gilt yields fall 4.7 basis points to 4.654%, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0837 GMT - Malaysia could see only a mild impact from Middle East tensions, given its limited trade exposure to the region and position as a net exporter of hydrocarbons, says Malaysian Rating Corporation in a note. Malaysia's trade remains skewed toward Asia, supported by strong exports of electrical and electronics, machinery and palm oil products, it says. Higher oil prices may lift inflation, mainly via transport costs, but headline inflation is expected to stay contained at around 2% in 2026 due to targeted subsidies, it reckons. GDP growth is projected at about 4.6%, with downside risks of 0.2-0.4 percentage point depending on the Middle East conflict's trajectory, it adds. MARC Ratings sees the ringgit weakening to 3.92-4.07 against U.S. dollar in near term, from 3.88-3.98, on rising risk aversion and fading expectations of U.S. rate cuts. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

0800 GMT - The Bank of Korea looks set to carry out two rate hikes this year, ultimately reaching a 3.00% terminal rate amid the risk of higher-for-longer inflation, Citi Research says. It raises South Korea's 2026 CPI forecast to 2.6% from 2.3% to reflect higher oil prices, and trims its GDP forecast to 2.2% from 2.3%. The negative impact of higher oil prices on growth is likely to be relatively mild thanks to the positive offset provided by the memory-industry upcycle and a potential supplementary budget, says economist Jin-Wook Kim. Semiconductor exports will likely also help the country maintain a robust current-account surplus, he says in a report. Citi thinks signs of a hawkish pivot could start to emerge in May, followed by 25bp hikes each in July and October.(monica.gupta@wsj.com)

0755 GMT - Gold prices hold broadly steady as investors await remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell in light of rising inflation risks driven by the Middle East conflict. In early trading, futures in New York are flat at $5,010.10 a troy ounce. "Continued U.S. and Israeli strikes, Iran's retaliation across the Gulf and disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have intensified concerns over global energy supply and inflation, reducing the likelihood of near-term rate cuts," says Soojin Kim from MUFG. Still, gold remains up about 15% this year, as persistent geopolitical and economic growth uncertainties reinforce its appeal as a long-term safe haven.(giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0751 GMT - The euro falls slightly versus the dollar, while eurozone government bond yields decline. Markets await decisions from the U.S. Federal Reserve Wednesday and the European Central Bank Thursday. Both are expected to leave rates on hold, with investors waiting to see how policymakers react to high energy prices caused by the Middle East war. The Fed meeting shouldn't be a "game changer" for the euro versus the dollar, Danske Bank's Sofie Liv Petry says in a note. "The Fed remains in a comfortable position to just wait and see how the war in Iran evolves." Markets are calmer as oil prices retreat. The euro eases 0.1% to $1.1524. The 10-year German Bund yield falls 1.8 basis points to 2.895%, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0729 GMT - Maybank remains cautious of the ongoing pressure on the Indonesian rupiah in the near-term, as it is unclear how long the Middle East conflict would last and oil prices are likely to determine the currency's movements. "The most direct hit from the conflict on the currency sentiment would be via the risks it poses to the country's fiscal position," analysts write in a note. President Prabowo Subianto said recently that the government would only approve a short-term increase in the budget deficit beyond 3% of GDP, if oil prices remain high. Maybank expects the dollar to trade at 16,900 rupiah in 1Q. The U.S. dollar is 0.1% lower at 16,975 rupiah, LSEG data show.(amanda.lee@wsj.com)

0716 GMT - The U.S. dollar stabilizes as oil prices and Treasury yields retreat, with markets in general showing a quieter picture ahead of the Federal Reserve's rate decision. The dollar's strength, gained amid the Middle East crisis due to high oil prices and risk aversion, might fade, Jefferies' Mohit Kumar says in a note. "We would be looking to fade the U.S. dollar strength and still have a view of medium-term U.S. dollar weakness," the global economist says. The expectation of a weaker dollar is best expressed versus gold, commodity currencies and versus Asian currencies, he says. The DXY dollar index, which measures the dollar against a basket of currencies, is flat at 99.533. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0657 GMT - Bond markets continue to stabilize ahead of this week's key central bank meetings, potentially allowing eurozone government bond yield spreads to tighten further, Commerzbank Research's Hauke Siemssen says in a note. "Markets remain cautiously optimistic with yields consolidating further and eurozone government bond spreads tightening across the board, led by Italy," the rates strategist says, referring to Tuesday's eurozone yield spread moves. While yields will probably not be able to lastingly decouple from energy price dynamics, intraday oil price swings may lose importance going forward, amid hopes that the situation in the Strait of Hormuz will soon ease, he says. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will hold a policy meeting, followed by the European Central Bank on Thursday, among this week's numerous central bank rate decisions. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0656 GMT - Japanese economic growth will likely slip into negative territory in fiscal 2026 if WTI crude oil rises to $150 per barrel and oil and LNG imports from countries around the Strait of Hormuz decline by 10%, causing supply shortages across Asia, says Daiwa Institute of Research. Such a surge would drag down the nation's real GDP growth by about 2.0 percentage points, Daiwa's estimates show. "As Japan, along with China, South Korea, and Taiwan, is said to hold substantial oil reserves, the likelihood of a crude supply shortage in the short term remains low," the research firm adds. (megumi.fujikawa@wsj.com)
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/DJN_DN20260318002008:0/