Terpin told Cointelegraph that his forecast is based on the “historical average” drawdown of about one year from a market cycle top, which was reached in October 2025 when BTC surged to an all-time high above $126,000, to the cycle bottom.

Bitcoin’s price needs to reclaim the $100,000 level for the bull market to resume, which will likely occur when the price falls below the 200-week moving average, a dynamic and critical support level, he said. Terpin added:

“There’s certainly a chance of $100,000 this year, but unlikely. It would need to combine strong exchange-traded fund (ETF) buying with what Michael Saylor is already doing at Strategy, combined with an absence of liquidations from a sharp move down.”Michael Terpin expects Bitcoin to bottom out around the $57,000 level. Source: TradingView
The forecast comes as Bitcoin’s price hovers at about $77,987, and crypto assets continue to be pressured by volatile oil prices, the war in Iran and a lack of liquidity, as interest rates in the US remain unchanged.

Current Bitcoin rally might be a fake out, says analyst

Ahead of this week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting (FOMC), 99.5% of traders expect no interest rate cut, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

“Wednesday is (Jerome) Powell's almost certain last FOMC meeting as Fed Chair. The Rate decision is almost certainly a hold flat,” market analyst Nic Puckrin said. Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell's term as head of the central bank ends next month.

The lack of “euphoria or interest” from crypto market investors amid the Bitcoin rally since February signals that investors view it as a limited rally, with a return to the downside expected, according to crypto market analyst Matthew Hyland.

“It does appear to me the larger expected consensus outcome for BTC is another leg lower by October,” he said on Saturday. Bitcoin’s price could also fall to the $73,000 level in the short term, according to Cointelegraph analysts.

If the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA) continues to be a resistance zone for Bitcoin’s price, this could also force prices to retrace to about $65,710, according to Rekt Capital.
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:311781fee094b:0-historical-average-could-push-bitcoin-bottom-at-57k-level-analyst/